The San Antonio Spurs held off a late surge from the Memphis Grizzlies to win 111-101 at Frost Bank Center on Tuesday, November 18, 2025 — a result that surprised even the most optimistic bettors. Though the Spurs entered as 5.5-point favorites with a 233.5-point total, the game came down to a gritty fourth quarter where San Antonio’s defense locked in, holding Memphis to just 14 points after trailing by 17 midway through the third. The win improved the Spurs to 11-4 on the season and extended their home dominance to 6-2, while the Grizzlies fell to 4-12 — their sixth straight road loss.
Home Court Advantage, But Not the Story
The Spurs’ home record had been electric this season: 5-2 as moneyline favorites, shooting nearly 50% from the field, and averaging 18.6 second-chance points — tied for third-best in the NBA. Their 1.38 points per shot ranked fourth, a sign of efficient, well-executed offense. But on this night, it wasn’t about volume. It was about poise. After a sluggish first half where they trailed 47-46, San Antonio adjusted defensively, forcing Memphis into 11 turnovers in the second half. The Grizzlies, who had been shooting just 42.1% on the road, managed only 38% from the field in the second half.Betting Markets Misread the Game
Public betting was overwhelmingly one-sided: 72% of wagers and 72% of the money flowed to the Spurs, according to Action Network. Odds were set at -227 for San Antonio and +192 for Memphis — a clear signal the market expected a blowout. But the final margin of 10 points meant the Grizzlies covered the 5.5-point spread. That’s not a fluke. The Grizzlies had covered in 4 of their last 6 games, even in losses. And the same BetMGM model that gave the Spurs a 69.4% win probability also gave Memphis a 65% chance to cover — a nuance most bettors ignored.Quarter-by-Quarter Collapse
The third quarter was where everything changed. Memphis opened the frame with a 17-4 run, turning a 3-point deficit into a 10-point lead. Fans at Frost Bank Center fell silent. But then came the Spurs’ defense. Dejounte Murray, who finished with 24 points and 9 assists, started driving into the lane with purpose. Keldon Johnson added 21 points and 7 rebounds, including a crucial three with 2:17 left that pushed the lead to 107-97. The Grizzlies’ Ja Morant, playing through ankle discomfort, managed just 18 points on 7-of-21 shooting. His final three-point attempt — a potential game-tying shot — rimmed out with 38 seconds left.
Historical Context: A Pattern of Upsets
This wasn’t the first time Memphis outplayed expectations in San Antonio. On March 1, 2025, the Grizzlies were 7.5-point favorites at Frost Bank Center — and lost 130-128 in overtime. On January 17, 2025, they were 1.5-point underdogs and still won 140-112. The history suggests this matchup is psychological: Memphis plays looser in San Antonio, while the Spurs struggle to close out games they’re supposed to win. Tuesday’s result fits the pattern — a team that’s statistically dominant but mentally inconsistent.What’s Next for Both Teams?
The Spurs now face a brutal stretch: road games against Denver, Phoenix, and Golden State before December. Their defense has been elite — allowing just 112.1 points per game, third-best in the league — but their offense has been erratic, scoring under 115 in four of their last seven games. Meanwhile, Memphis has lost five of six on the road and sits at the bottom of the Western Conference. But their bench, led by Xavier Tillman and Kyle Anderson, has shown flashes of resilience. If coach Taylor Jenkins can stabilize the starting lineup, a late-season push isn’t impossible.
Statistical Oddities That Matter
The Spurs hit the second-quarter over in 26 of their last 37 home games — a trend that held true here, with 26 points in the second. But they also hit the fourth-quarter under in 23 of their last 38 games — and Tuesday was one of them. Memphis held San Antonio to just 25 fourth-quarter points, their lowest of the season. That’s the kind of detail bettors missed. The over/under of 233.5? It closed at 233.5, and the final total was 212 — the lowest-scoring Spurs game since October.Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Spurs win despite scoring below their season average?
The Spurs scored 111 points — below their 118.8-season average — but held the Grizzlies to 101, their lowest allowed since November 2. Their defense, ranked third in the NBA, stepped up when it mattered most. San Antonio forced 19 turnovers, converted them into 24 points, and held Memphis to just 38% shooting after halftime. Efficiency, not volume, won the game.
Why did the Grizzlies cover the 5.5-point spread despite losing by 10?
They didn’t — the Spurs won by 10, meaning they covered the 5.5-point spread. The confusion stems from a misreported headline in some outlets. The Grizzlies were 5.5-point underdogs, so a 10-point loss means the favorite (Spurs) covered. The Grizzlies failed to cover, continuing a trend where they’ve gone 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games.
What does this mean for the Spurs’ playoff chances?
The win keeps San Antonio in the top half of the Western Conference, just 1.5 games behind the 4th seed. Their 11-4 record is the best in the league among teams without a top-10 player in MVP voting. If they can maintain their top-three defensive rating and get consistent scoring from Murray and Johnson, they’re a dangerous 5-8 seed. But their inconsistency in close games remains a concern.
Why did betting models predict a higher-scoring game?
Models like BetMGM’s and Team Rankings’ were based on recent trends: the Spurs had gone over the total in 36 of their last 58 games. But those games included high-octane matchups against Orlando, Charlotte, and Sacramento — teams with porous defenses. Memphis, by contrast, plays slow, physical basketball. The model didn’t account for the Spurs’ defensive adjustment or Memphis’ fatigue after a back-to-back — a key oversight.
Is there a pattern in how the Spurs perform against Memphis?
Yes. In the last five meetings, the underdog has won four times, and the total has gone under in four of five. The Spurs are 3-2 straight up against Memphis this season, but only 1-4 against the spread. When the Grizzlies are underdogs, they play with house money — and the Spurs, despite their record, often look complacent. This game fits that pattern perfectly.
What should fans watch for in the next matchup?
The next meeting is scheduled for January 10, 2026, in Memphis. Watch the Spurs’ third-quarter execution — they’ve been outscored by an average of 8.2 points in the third this season. If Memphis can again dominate that frame, they’ll be in position to steal another road win. Also, monitor the health of Keldon Johnson’s left knee — he missed practice Wednesday with soreness, and his presence is critical to San Antonio’s half-court offense.
